Three weeks of Northwestern football have given the Daily’s Gameday Staff a lot to think about. While the warning signs are evident, following a 1-2 start, a week off before the Wildcats host UCLA could provide time for NU to reflect and adapt to save its season.
Given the circumstances, the Gameday Staff re-evaluated the young season and where it may be heading.
Initial Prediction: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten)
Updated Prediction: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)
Key Question: Can the offense find a rhythm against UCLA and Louisiana-Monroe?
A 1-2 start to the year is not cause for panic, given tough matchups with College Football Playoff contenders Tulane and Oregon, but the results have not been pretty. Expectations were high for SMU graduate transfer quarterback Preston Stone, but he has struggled to start the year.
Stone is one of four quarterbacks in the country to throw six or more interceptions so far. Turnovers are killing drives and forcing NU’s defense into back-breaking situations. Running backs Joseph Himon II and Caleb Komolafe have shown promise in the backfield, but the ’Cats need Stone and the receivers to find consistency for the offense to function at its best.
NU has to take advantage of its upcoming home stretch after a bye week. UCLA fired its coach after a disastrous 0-3 start and could start to see players bolt for the transfer portal as soon as this week. The ’Cats need to make a statement on both sides of the ball against the Bruins with a chance for the defense to shut down a Big Ten opponent.
The ’Cats’ Oct. 4 matchup with Louisiana-Monroe is an opportunity for Stone and the offense to really get rolling and put up points to excite the home crowd. A road trip to No. 2 Penn State the following week is a big challenge, but after that, the ’Cats return home against rival Purdue. If NU can garner momentum before facing the Boilermakers, it will go a long way in pushing it into bowl contention.
– Andrew Little, Senior Staffer
Previous Prediction: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)
Current Prediction: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten)
Question: Can the offense give itself a chance to succeed?
The defense has proven to be a respectable unit, holding both Tulane and Oregon to season-low scores, but it hasn’t been able to stop opponents in their tracks.
NU has tallied just three sacks and forced two turnovers through three games. Both stats are among the bottom three in the Big Ten.
For the ’Cats to stay in games into the fourth quarter and put itself in a position to win, the offense needs to play at or above average. To this point, it hasn’t been able to keep up. NU has scored a combined three points in the first three quarters of its matchups against FBS opponents and lost both games by 20 points.
Simply put, the offense has struggled to get out of its own way. Even with a get-right game against Western Illinois under its belt, NU holds a turnover margin of minus-two per game, tied for the worst among Power Four teams.
The last time the ’Cats had a negative turnover margin over the course of a season and won at least five games was 2010.
Taking care of the football should be Stone’s first priority. His second should be finding a rhythm in the passing game.
Out wide, another name has yet to emerge besides junior wide receiver Griffin Wilde, who has more yards than the rest of the room combined. As of now, Stone’s leading receiver behind him is the other team with 78 return yards on interceptions.
There have been flashes of hope, but stringing good plays together has been a consistent issue through three games. Just when things seem to click, the team backs itself into a corner with turnovers or forces the offense to tee off from behind the sticks.
Even with the loss of graduate student running back Cam Porter due to a season-ending injury, the ground game has been a bright spot. If the passing attack can find its groove, the rest of the team is set up to play complementary football right away.
– Alex Boyko, Senior Staffer
Initial Prediction: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)
Updated Prediction: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)
Key Question: Can Stone turn around his play moving forward or will the ’Cats remain stagnant on offense?
Entering the season with promise following Stone’s arrival, NU has gotten off to a mediocre 1-2 start, including losses to Tulane and then-No. 4 Oregon.
Stone, who has thrown for 541 yards this season, is tied for the second-most interceptions in college football with six. Outside of Wilde, who has amassed 213 yards, no pass catcher has surpassed 100 yards yet.
The ’Cats failed to find offensive momentum against Oregon and Tulane, combining for 17 points in those two contests. Against the Ducks, they couldn’t score until the fourth quarter, at which point they already trailed by 31 points.
To make matters worse, Porter was ruled out for the season following NU’s Week 2 matchup with Western Illinois.
Coach David Braun’s squad has more manageable contests coming up, against UCLA (0-3,0-0 Big Ten) and Louisiana-Monroe (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt). Still, the bulk of their Big Ten schedule provides little relief, including meetings with No. 2 Penn State and No. 21 Michigan.
It could be a tough road ahead for the ’Cats, who will likely need to win five more matches to qualify for a bowl game.
– Kamran Nia, Copy Chief
Initial Prediction: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten)
Updated Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)
Key Question: Can Stone work through a shaky start to the season?
If you just look at NU’s 1-2 record through this point in the season, there is not much cause for concern; Tulane and Oregon are both contenders to make the College Football Playoff, and the ’Cats easily took care of business against Western Illinois.
Stone’s play, though, is alarming. Through three games, Stone has thrown six interceptions, a figure tied for second most in the nation. Four fumbles on top of the picks make for a NU that hasn’t found its rhythm.
If one thing can turn the offense around, it’s the run game, even with the loss of Porter to injury. Both Komolafe and Himon have proved effective on the ground and will be relied on heavily as the season progresses.
This bye-week will be useful for the offense to get back on track and settle down Stone. The ’Cats have extra time to prepare for a winless UCLA squad that relieved coach DeShaun Foster of his duties Sunday.
NU should handily defeat Louisiana-Monroe in early October, but the rest of the Big Ten slate will not do it any favors. The ’Cats will have to face four more currently ranked opponents throughout the rest of the season.
The three conference foes NU should have circled on its calendar are against UCLA, Purdue and Minnesota. Even then, winning two of those three matchups seems like a difficult task given the current state of the offense.
– Anna Watson, Gameday Editor
Related Stories:
— Football: Northwestern offense still searching for identity after 34-14 Oregon loss
— Football: Miscues plague Stone in 34-14 loss to No. 4 Oregon
