Northwestern will need to win out and receive help to qualify for the Big Ten Tournament that starts March 4. Despite only having two games left on the schedule, five games involving seven Big Ten teams need to go the Wildcats’ way for the team to sneak into the tournament as the 15th seed.

Four teams between 14th and 17th in the Big Ten are still in the chase for the final two spots in Indianapolis. Rivals Indiana and Purdue both have four conference wins, Penn State sits on three and the ’Cats have two. 

Only the top 15 teams will travel to Gainbridge Fieldhouse to compete in the tournament after regular season play concludes on March 1.

Since both Indiana and Penn State beat NU in the regular season, the only way that the ’Cats can finish 15th is if they finish in a two-way tie with Purdue for that spot. Since NU must beat the Boilermakers to reach the required four wins, they would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

That road starts Wednesday when NU travels to No. 14 Maryland. The ’Cats must win that game, and two other contests that day must go their way: USC must win on the road at Penn State, and Oregon must take down the Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Ind.

Just one relevant matchup takes place Saturday, with Penn State playing at Indiana. The Hoosiers must win that game.

NU hosts the season finale March 1 against Purdue at Welsh-Ryan Arena. If the ’Cats win, and all the previous results go their way, then they will qualify for the tournament on head-to-head over Purdue.

The ’Cats have a 65% chance of getting the help they need should they win out, according to ESPN Analytics. However, they only have a 0.4% chance of winning out.

Should NU make the cut, they would play the Big Ten’s No. 10 seed March 4. Currently, Washington holds that spot.

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