Five hundred.
It’s the magic number. As many wins as losses? You get your name up on the board while the National Invitation Tournament selection committee decides whose season is over, or extended.
The NIT. Sweet! OK, well it’s … um, nice at least. Anyway, it’s the highest peak Northwestern’s men’s basketball program has ever attained. And the mere addition of extra frames to a season is truly cause to get excited in Evanston. But it might not be the only thing Wildcats fans should be thinking about right now.
I know, I know. It’s ludicrous. An NCAA mention would get an instant ‘Whoa, buddy’ from me too.
Maybe it’s the three wins in a row, or maybe it’s the boredom of a bye-week Wednesday night without NU basketball. But I’ve been number crunching. Let’s break it down.
With the men’s basketball team’s 65-52 win over Penn State on Saturday the Cats moved to 11-11 overall. And sustaining a .500 record for NIT eligibility is well within reach.
NU’s three remaining home games are against two teams with worse Big Ten records and the Hawkeyes, who the Cats beat 77-68 on the road. Three wins in the Cats’ six remaining games — that includes the Big Ten tourney’s first round — is all NU needs.
Since 1985, 30 of the 31 Big Ten teams eligible for the NIT have been selected. The exception: NU’s 2001-02 squad. But with a Ratings Percentage Index position more than 25 slots better than Tavaras Hardy’s team, the current Cats are in good shape to avoid another snub.
Here’s the fun stuff.
After Wednesday night — and Indiana’s 73-71 loss to Minnesota — NU (6-5 Big Ten) stands alone in fifth. Iowa (7-5 Big Ten) is up a half game on NU. The Cats have the Hawkeyes at home Wednesday, March 3.
The Big Ten has sent at least five teams to the NCAA Tournament for 19 straight seasons. This trend may not continue — ESPN.com and SI.com both have fewer than five Big Ten squads in their current projections — but if it does, NU could have an outside shot of sneaking in with the fourth or fifth spot if it could put up 17 wins.
No. 10 Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan State are solid, but from there things get a bit more grey.
Indiana is 12-11 and getting worse, losing five of its last six. With the NCAA selection committee’s pension for seeing teams playing their best late, the Hoosiers have little hope.
Iowa at 14-9 could potentially have three head-to-head losses to NU before the end of the season, and Michigan (14-8) will be hard pressed to win 16 with a tough remaining schedule.
Purdue’s 16-9 record says go, but a sixth-place Big Ten spot might keep it out. The Boilermakers’ crappy strength of schedule (152nd) and a head-to-head loss to the Cats could put them in the backseat to a 17-win NU.
Seventeen victories would mean taking four of the five remaining regular season contests and a two-game run in the Big Ten tourney.
Don’t buy the fact that NU will win 6 of its next 7? Neither do I. But wait — there’s another way.
The Cats had wins against a lowly team (Penn State), a mid-range team (Purdue) and a Big Ten top dog (Wisconsin) for three in a row. Substitute Penn State for another middle-of-the- pack squad, say Iowa, and that looks suspiciously like the road of a four or five seed in the conference tourney.
Deputy sports editor Nick Collins is a Weinberg junior. He can be reached at [email protected].
