A statistic stands out from an otherwise inconclusive poll: An estimated 22% of Democratic voters in Illinois’ 9th Congressional District remain undecided ahead of the crowded March 17 primary election.
The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling and commissioned by the Evanston RoundTable, is the first independent survey of the race since November. It polled 501 likely primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%.
Data breaking down those polled by race, age, education level and geography provides early hints about the groups most and least likely to support each candidate.
Among respondents who’ve made up their minds, Mayor Daniel Biss, progressive content creator Kat Abughazaleh and State Sen. Laura Fine (D-Glenview) all fell within the margin of error for first place. Biss was supported by about 24% of respondents, followed by Abughazaleh and Fine with 17% and 16% support, respectively.
The three frontrunners appear to rely heavily on their targeted age demographics. Abughazaleh, who has released campaign materials appealing to young voters, has about 30% support among respondents aged 18 to 45.
Red boxes — pages that allow candidates to supply messaging for political advertisements without directly coordinating with outside groups — on the Biss and Fine campaign websites indicate both candidates are targeting older voters. They captured about 34% and 24% support among respondents 66 years and older, respectively.
Three in ten of respondents aged 46 to 65 remained undecided.
Fine’s red box also states that groups should target “suburban voters, with a focus beginning in the outer suburbs and moving toward the city.” But beyond Illinois Senate Districts 7, 8 and 9 — the districts closest to downtown Chicago in the 9th Congressional District — Biss, Abughazaleh and Fine are statistically tied, with 32% of respondents remaining undecided.
Biss and Fine are within the margin of error for first place in Fine’s own Illinois Senate District 9.
Another independent poll is planned for early March, RoundTable reporter Alex Harrison wrote in a Bluesky post Wednesday.
Email: [email protected]
Bluesky: @ryaninevanston.bsky.social
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