Men’s Basketball: 3-on-3 — Writers discuss Wildcats’ tournament outlook

A+group+of+Wildcats+huddle+together+during+a+game.+Northwestern%E2%80%99s+struggles+early+in+its+Big+Ten+schedule+has+diminished+the+team%E2%80%99s+chances+of+reaching+the+NCAA+Tournament+for+the+first+time+in+program+history.

Daily file photo by Jacob Swan

A group of Wildcats huddle together during a game. Northwestern’s struggles early in its Big Ten schedule has diminished the team’s chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history.


Men’s Basketball

With 10 games remaining for Northwestern in the 2015-16 regular season, the Daily’s men’s basketball reporters gathered to discuss the Wildcats’ postseason potential, the season thus far and the future ahead.

1. Where will the Cats finish in regards to the NCAA Tournament?

Max Schuman: They’ll finish far away from the tournament bubble. Speculation before the season pegged NU as needing upwards of 20 wins and a few signature victories in the Big Ten to be considered for a berth, given the team’s weak nonconference schedule.

At 15-6 with 10 games remaining in the regular season, the Cats will have to play nearly perfect basketball the rest of the way and upset teams like No. 12 Michigan State and No. 3 Iowa for resume-boosting quality wins, to reach that mark and have any chance. Anybody who has watched the team knows that’s unlikely.

Garrett Jochnau: NU will end the season on the bubble but will ultimately be among the first teams out. An easy non-conference campaign gave the Cats a strong foundation to perhaps finally break the program’s infamous cold spell, but the Big Ten schedule exposed NU to still be a step or two away.

The team needs a signature win on top of its victory over Wisconsin in order to catch the committee’s attention, but after a loss to a mediocre Penn State team, not only does a win like that seem unlikely, but it might not even be enough. Expect the Cats to find themselves in the NIT Tournament instead.

Ben Pope: They’ll finish below the tournament bubble. NU’s 2-5 record in its last seven Big Ten games has left the team’s NCAA Tournament hopes reliant on an incredible stretch run. The team will likely need an 11-7 conference record or better to receive a bid; they’ll have to go 8-2 or better from here out to get there.

The schedule does get easier. Their final four home games — Minnesota, Illinois, Rutgers and Nebraska — are all very winnable. But the Cats will need to upset at least one of Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue and win all of the others. Ultimately, I can’t see such a fantastic stretch becoming a reality.

2. What went wrong this season?

Jochnau: NU was not a tournament team this year, and even though a padded non-conference campaign gave them cushion, the stars still would have had to align for this team to make the tournament. They didn’t.

Sophomore forward Vic Law was ruled out for the season with a shoulder injury before it began, senior guard Tre Demps emerged as an inferior version of his 2014-15 self and senior center Alex Olah missed six games with a foot injury and was limited in two more. On top of that, shooters haven’t been shooting well and the defense is still going through growing pains. A lot went wrong this season, but no single circumstance will keep the Cats out of the tournament.

Pope: The Cats rolled through their non-conference schedule by shooting efficiently against very inferior opponents. After this trend continued in the Big Ten opener at Nebraska, it seems the team began to believe it would keep working against even marquee opponents. This belief proved wrong.

NU has shot poorly since defeating Nebraska, finishing below 39 percent from the field in four of its last seven contests. The winter-long slump of Demps, the constant revolving door of big men and the absence of Law have all contributed to the team’s shooting problems, but an offensive team that’s not playing well offensively is always destined to fail.

Schuman: The Cats were doomed when Law was ruled out for the season. It’s hard to know how good he would’ve been, but expectations for the forward were high.

Many of NU’s issues — a lack of secondary playmaking around sophomore guard Bryant McIntosh and Demps, a dearth of defensive presence on the perimeter and a deficit of athleticism against top teams — are holes Law could’ve reasonably filled. Instead, the Cats have struggled to find ways to score against athletic defenses, and NU’s defense hasn’t held up against top outside threats. Without Law, the Cats simply don’t have the horses to hang with the conference’s best.

3. How far away are the Cats from being a tournament team?

Pope: Optimism will inevitably surge again by next autumn, especially if this year’s squad manages to qualify for at least the NIT. The Cats’ tournament chances may be higher than ever before next season, but they definitely won’t be guaranteed a berth.

McIntosh and freshman forward Aaron Falzon will need to be more consistent top scorers. Law will have to shake a year’s worth of rust. Freshman center Dererk Pardon will have to replace the contributions of Olah and graduate transfer center Joey van Zegeren. And the entire team will have to create a more cohesive, less chaotic defensive scheme.

The path to a tournament berth will be clearer than ever, but it won’t necessarily be easier.

Schuman: NU is further than many fans would like to admit from its first bid to the NCAAs. McIntosh’s strong play and Pardon’s emergence this season, coupled with Law’s return and another solid incoming recruiting class, will have hopes high for a tournament run next season.

But the Cats will again be relying on too many players next season who have obvious holes in their games, whether it’s defense or shooting or ball-handling, and that will make it tough to dictate terms against the top teams in the Big Ten as a tournament team should. Twice against Maryland, NU’s offense grinded to a halt thanks to a lack of players who could credibly attack off the dribble, and Indiana exposed the Cats’ defensive weakness on the perimeter while also getting into the paint repeatedly.

On the surface, the talent level in the program is rising, but until NU can field a squad of well-rounded players that can win their individual matchups both ways every night, the team will struggle to break its tournament drought.

Jochnau: I’m cautiously pegging them to contend next year. It’s a long shot, but after seeing the team beat Wisconsin with Demps struggling and Olah out, and then take Maryland to overtime with minimal contributions from both seniors, I don’t see the duo’s looming departure to be a sign of impending doom for the Cats in 2016-17.

In fact, it will open the door for other players — improved players — to make bigger splashes. In addition to Law’s return, McIntosh will be even more experienced and freshmen Falzon and Pardon should return with greater confidence with a year under their belts. Will that result in Falzon becoming more consistent from 3, or Pardon taking the next step and becoming a day-to-day two-way post option? Time will tell — though some, including myself, would argue the latter is a near guarantee.

A lot rides on whether incoming freshman center Barret Benson can give NU another talent in the post, and whether the rest of the class — forward Rapolas Ivanauskas and guard Isiah Brown can provide the Cats with shot creators and depth. But with added experience, the team will be an improved version of itself next year and will find itself in a position to qualify for the tournament.

Email: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

Twitter: @garrettjochnau, @benpope111