There’s only one way to accurately predict how Northwestern will fare this year: Use a video game.
After simulating the upcoming season 10 times on EA Sports NCAA Football 2007, it was clear that NU fans should only be excited if they don’t believe in the forecasting ability of the game.
If it’s correct, expect a 4-8 season with wins against Miami (Ohio), New Hampshire, Eastern Michigan and either Purdue or Illinois. The 1-7 expected finish in the Big Ten would place the Cats in 10th in the Big Ten, ahead of Indiana.
The worst NU will endure is a 2-10 campaign, and there is a 40-percent chance the Cats will go winless in the conference.
The best the Cats can hope for is a 7-5 season with a trip to the Motor City Bowl. Two of the 10 simulations put NU in a bowl game, the other bowl campaign being a 6-6 year where the Cats faced Texas A&M in the Independence Bowl.
If you believe in the prediction power of Xbox, look for quarterback Mike Kafka to have a mediocre year. Of the 10 seasons, Kafka only made it through seven, as he was injured twice and was benched halfway through another.
He will most likely go 161-320 passing with 1990 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Kafka’s best possible season is 209-391 passing with 26 touchdowns and 15 picks.
As much as it would seem NU’s success depends on how sophomore running back Tyrell Sutton follows up a record-setting 2005 campaign, EA Sports doesn’t think so. Sutton was consistently average throughout the simulation, and the team’s record fluctuated with the play of Kafka, not Sutton. Kafka’s two best campaigns resulted in bowl appearances, while his worst season brought home a 2-8 record. Sutton’s best and worst seasons both resulted in 4-8 campaigns.
According to the game, senior wide receiver Shaun Herbert will prove to be the team’s best player. He was the team leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns every year. The best Herbert will do this season is 59 catches for 765 yards and nine touchdowns.
There’s a 50-percent chance Nick Roach will lead the team in tackles, and whatever player leads the team will have 63 takedowns.
The game also predicts NU will average scoring fewer than 25 points a contest this season, while giving up more than 30 points a game.
But before giving this video game too much credence, there were a couple of red flags that showed this might not be as reliable a method as one would think.
First, in one simulation Wisconsin went 12-0 and played in the Rose Bowl. Barry Alvarez must have become a consultant for this game when he retired because something had to be rigged for that to happen.
In the season that NU went go 7-5 and “earned” a trip to the Motor City Bowl, the team faced Buffalo in the bowl. This is the same Buffalo that opened the season second on ESPN.com’s not-so-coveted Bottom 10 rankings on Tuesday. The Buffalo that went 1-10 last season with a win against Kent State and a moral victory against Akron (only losing by 6). The game obviously had a mental lapse when it spit out this model, but does that mean NU going 7-5 is just as crazy?
Now comes the biggest flaw of the simulation – there is no love for Sutton, the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Year. If NCAA Football 2007 is accurate, Sutton with have 145 carries for 915 yards and six touchdowns, a far cry from his numbers of a season ago.
Sutton only rushed for more than 1,000 yards one time out of 10, but what was even more puzzling is he seemed to be even better than he was in his rookie campaign. Sutton averaged 6.3 yards per carry, better than his total from last year. According to the game, Sutton will have more than 100 fewer carries than he did in 2005 due to injuries and baffling play calling.
Since the simulation’s credibility was in question, the next step was to actually play the game and see the results. So far NU is 3-0, outscoring Miami (Ohio), New Hampshire and Eastern Michigan 144-3, Sutton has 63 carries for 513 yards and eight touchdowns, and Kafka is an efficient 72-103 for 767 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Even a meddling Barry Alvarez can’t stop that.
Football columnist Abe Rakov is a Medill junior. He can be reached at [email protected].
