What a Dance! Now the only mystery is which team will be cutting down the nets and raising the trophy come Monday night. To get my answer, I looked back at the common factors that arise between the champions of the last five Final Fours. After this analysis, I noticed five common traits: a balance of inside and outside scoring-best illustrated by the North Carolina squad that beat a guard-heavy Illinois in 2005-superb coaching, upperclassman leadership-evidenced by last year’s upperclassmen-laden Tar Heels-, potential NBA players-like the Florida teams which won back-to-back titles and sent four players to the NBA-and finally my own version of total defense. This includes average points-per-game, total average rebounds, steals, opponents’ field goal percentage and blocks-per-game. These statistics are then ranked one to four amongst the Final Four teams. The total scores are compiled and the teams are ranked in total defense from one to four from lowest to highest (think golf scoring). The team that controls a majority of these categories will win its games.
Now let’s analyze this year’s Final Four, beginning with the matchup between Michigan State and Butler. The coaching advantage is clear-Tom Izzo’s six Final Fours overshadow Brad Stevens, on his first trip to the tournament. Thanks to the passing ability of Draymond Green, the Spartans have the superior inside-outside offense. Finally, with a team that made it to last year’s National Championship along with the senior leadership of Raymar Morgan and the calming bench presence of an injured Kalin Lucas, Michigan State trumps Butler’s home court advantage and moves on to the National Championship for the second consecutive year.
The next game between Duke and West Virginia is a little trickier. The Blue Devils have the coaching advantage with Coach K’s three national championships towering over the lovable sweatsuit-wearing Bob Huggins. These teams each have one NBA-ready player, Kyle Singler for Duke and Da’Sean Butler for West Virginia. The leadership factor is also equal, with seniors Butler and Jon Scheyer. These teams are similar until you take into account the brothers Plumlee and the depth they provide on Duke’s front line. So Duke advances here with two ties and two wins.
This brings us to a National Championship game matching two perennial powerhouses-Duke and Michigan State. Coaching is a draw; there is no way to choose between these two sideline giants. Senior leadership is hard to determine as well, as Scheyer and a veteran Duke squad match wits with Lucas and Morgan. However Michigan State has been here before and its leaders know what it’s like to play in this game, so the Spartans get the check mark. Each team has one NBA-ready player-Singler for Duke and the extremely athletic, 6-foot-5 Durrell Summers for Michigan State. The Blue Devils have the defensive advantage, earning an 11 to Michigan State’s 13 on the Grayhack Total Defense Scale. Finally, MSU has an advantage in the post with Green, Morgan and Delvon Roe, but Duke’s guards give it the upper hand on the outside. Once again the difference will be Green’s ability to pass the ball between levels. If he is able to pull this off, it will give the Spartans the edge and the championship. Will my formula work? Only time will tell.
Pat Grayhack is a sophomore in Weinberg. He can be reached at [email protected]
