Last year, picking the Oscars was easy.

With a little help from the major precursor awards — the Golden Globes and guild awards, among others — along with some Oscar history, it wasn’t hard to see that the three-year run of “The Lord of the Rings” would culminate in prizes for Best Picture and Best Director.

Nor was it hard to see that first-time nominee and precursor-laden Charlize Theron (“Monster”) would win for her transformation from beautiful starlet to down-and-dirty damsel (see: Halle Berry in “Monster’s Ball,” Julia Roberts in “Erin Brockovitch,” et al).

Only Best Actor was a question — Sean Penn (“Mystic River”), Bill Murray (“Lost in Translation”) and Johnny Depp (“Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”) all had major precursors and no Oscars on their mantle. Penn, the slight favorite, won, perhaps because he was the only of the three to have been nominated before.

What a difference a year makes. This time around, Best Actor is the surest thing. The rest of the categories each have two or three contenders, and there’s always the chance of a Marcia Gay Harden-esque dark horse taking the gold.

O Peter Jackson, where art thou?

Best Picture: “The Aviator,” “Finding Neverland,” “Million Dollar Baby,” “Ray,” “Sideways.” Winner: “Million Dollar Baby,”Alternate: “The Aviator.”

When it first was announced Martin Scorsese would helm an epic about Howard Hughes, one couldn’t help but think, “Oscar.” As 2004 progressed and the disappointments (“Troy,” “Alexander”) piled up, this seemed like a safe bet. But along came Clint Eastwood, who pushed the release date of “Baby” to 2004 to take advantage of a weak Oscar field. Now, with major critics and streams of filmgoers’ tears behind it, “Baby” may just pull the knockout punch, especially after Eastwood’s Directors Guild win (only six times in the last 47 years has the DGA winner not directed Oscar’s Best Picture).

Best Director: Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby;” Taylor Hackford, “Ray;” Mike Leigh, “Vera Drake;” Alexander Payne, “Sideways;” Martin Scorsese, “The Aviator.” Winner: Scorsese, Alternate: Eastwood.

Yes, Eastwood won both the DGA and the Golden Globe, but he’s already won a Best Director Oscar and Scorsese has a movie worthy of “make-up award” votes. The legendary director, famously snubbed for “Taxi Driver,” “Raging Bull” and “Goodfellas” should break through and win Oscar No. 1.

Best Leading Actor: Don Cheadle, “Hotel Rwanda;” Johnny Depp, “Finding Neverland;” Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Aviator;” Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby;” Jamie Foxx, “Ray.” Winner: Foxx, Alternate: None.

Foxx has won a Globe, a SAG award and nearly everything else under the sun for his heralded performance as Ray Charles. Couple that with Charles’ somewhat recent death and Foxx’s obvious status as Hollywood’s “It” actor (see: a second nomination for Best Supporting Actor in “Collateral” — a mildly-praised role that most certainly was not supporting).

Best Leading Actress: Annette Bening, “Being Julia;” Catalina Sandino Moreno, “Maria Full of Grace;” Imelda Staunton, “Vera Drake;” Hilary Swank, “Million Dollar Baby;” Kate Winslet, “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.” Winner: Swank, Alternate: Bening.

The keen observer will notice this is a repeat of 1999, when Swank (“Boys Don’t Cry”) defeated Bening (“American Beauty”). Normally, the Academy likes to spread the wealth — just look at Adrien Brody’s surprising 2002 win over four well-respected-but-already-awarded actors. However, Bening’s little-seen performance must overcome a major obstacle: Bening received the only nomination for “Being Julia,” and only three of the last 40 acting award winners received their film’s only nomination. This bodes well not only for Swank but for critical favorite Staunton, whose film garnered surprising nominations in the Best Director and Best Original Screenplay categories.

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Alda, “The Aviator;” Thomas Haden Church, “Sideways;” Jamie Foxx, “Collateral;” Morgan Freeman, “Million Dollar Baby;” Clive Owen, “Closer.” Winner: Freeman; Alternate: Church.

Freeman has the SAG award, three prior nominations, no Oscars, a hot movie and everybody’s love, making him hard to pick against. But Owen took the Globe in this category and Church won almost every critic award. Still, the Academy likely will award two black actors on the same night for the second time in Oscar history.

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, “The Aviator;” Laura Linney, “Kinsey;” Virginia Madsen, “Sideways;” Sophie Okonedo, “Hotel Rwanda;” Natalie Portman, “Closer.” Winner: Blanchett, Alternate: Madsen

Almost identical to Best Supporting Actor. Blanchett has the SAG award, one prior nomination, no Oscars, an almost-as-hot-as-Freeman movie and everybody’s immense respect (if not love), making her hard to pick against. Plus she plays four-time Oscar-winner Katherine Hepburn. But Portman took the Globe and Madsen won over the critics.

So thanks to a hidden method to the Academy’s madness, there really is no tossup here. But that doesn’t mean everything will play out accordingly.

Medill sophomore Patrick Dorsey is a PLAY writer. He can be reached at [email protected].