As a Cubs fan, I feel obligated to be pessimistic about their chances this year. Or wildly optimistic. Or drunk.
But I’m none of those.
I’m a realist when it comes to the Cubs. Take last night’s game, for example. I was predicting a no-hitter for Kerry Wood. The wild-eyed optimist would have gone with a perfect game. And the pessimist would cringe with each pitch, expecting it to be the one where Wood’s arm falls off.
Realism won out last night, as Wood gave up all of two hits in the Cubs 4-2 victory over the Braves. But the naysayers still insist the Cubs can’t win it all — because they are cursed.
They wouldn’t let a billy goat into the park, or something like that. I think there’s some story about a black cat, too. We’re supposed to believe that’s why they haven’t won a World Series in 95 years.
Now, I can buy the Red Sox being cursed. Selling Babe Ruth is a pretty serious blunder. And I can buy the White Sox having some bad karma. You throw the World Series, you never get to win one again. That makes sense to me. But here’s the Cubs’ dirty little secret — they’ve just never been that good
The last time they led the National League in ERA was 1945, the last time they got to the World Series. They’ve led the league in runs exactly three times since. Two of those years they won their division. So we’re not exactly dealing with a lot of great teams that got screwed out of making the playoffs.
The Cubs just never had many talented players.
But they do this year. Wood is one of the most prolific young strikeout pitchers of all time, and he’d hit your grandma if she were crowding the plate. Carlos Zambrano is 22 and already showing up Barry Bonds. And Mark Prior is probably the best young pitcher since Doc Gooden, without the troubling cocaine problem.
Even without the cork, Sammy Sosa’s still a pretty good hitter. Cubs general manager Jim Hendry made some solid moves to shore up the rest of the team, but the offense is still just average. That’s okay, though, because the 2001 Diamondbacks showed that dominant starting pitching can take you far in the playoffs. And here’s the dirty little secret about the playoffs — it’s a crapshoot.
The best team doesn’t always win. You can crunch the numbers all you want, but the actual games are often determined by random events. Last night’s game turned on a ball that Braves first baseman Robert Fick booted. That sort of thing happens all the time in the playoffs.
That means the 88-74 Cubs have a chance to beat an Atlanta Braves team that won 101 games this year. Being up 1-0 in the series makes it more likely than not.
And if the Cubs don’t win the series, it won’t be because they’re cursed. It’ll be because the Braves have the best offense in the league. Or it’ll be because Greg Maddux, the best pitcher of the last 25 years, outduels Prior, who has a chance to be one of the best ever.
I’m a realist, so I have to say whether or not the Cubs win the World Series has a lot to do with luck.
But I have a friend who says you make your own luck, and he has pledged to streak through campus if the Cubs win the World Series.
Forget the realism. The Cubs will beat the Braves in five, the San Francisco Giants in five, and the Oakland A’s in six. For my friend’s sake, I hope it’s not too cold in late October.
City Reporter Greg Lowe is a Medill junior. He can reached at [email protected].
