During my senior year of high school, my football team was incredible. We started the season 7-0 for the first time since the 1980s. But we had yet to play our toughest game against The Benjamin School in Palm Beach Gardens. To win, our coaches devised a strategy to contain Benjamin’s quarterback, Jordan Travis, and make him throw the ball long for touchdowns. It appeared that my team was on the verge of victory against a top team.

But Benjamin won that game, 48-3. Travis took our challenge and responded by completing 13 out of 20 passes, for 227 yards passing, 133 yards running and five touchdowns overall. He beat us and embarrassed my team.

I write about this anecdote to make my point: sometimes, you are bound to fail in life. You can resist, you can try, you can fight and sometimes, you lose anyways. In this case, Saint Andrews lost because Benjamin had a quarterback who could play elite college football — and currently does for Florida State University. The Democratic Party felt this gravity last week during their drubbing in statewide and local elections.

In the United States, there is one particular occurrence I would like to discuss: the presidential penalty. 

This occurrence lies in eerie wait during every presidency since the Great Depression. During the years between presidential elections, the party that controls the White House faces electoral penalties in the House of Representatives and the Senate. In 18 of the 21 midterm elections since 1932, the party in power has lost federal seats. The only strong exceptions are 1933, during the start of the New Deal and in 2002, due to American support for George W. Bush skyrocketing, after the Sept. 11 attacks. Even during the New Deal era, with an incredibly popular Democratic Party, Franklin Roosevelt and the Democrats faced widespread defeat in the 1938 and 1942 midterms. These events were due to the presidential penalty, and voters wanting to put a check on the president.

In 2017, American voters reacted to Donald Trump’s presidency by electing Democrats in  nearly every seat possible. One of my favorite examples was the leftist Democrat Christine Pellegrino. Pellegrino won a New York State Assembly seat on Long Island by 21 points, six months after Trump won that same seat by 23 points. 

In Illinois, backlash to Republicans led to local results like J.B. Pritzker unseating Gov. Bruce Rauner by double digits, and state Democrats asserting their power in the Chicago suburbs on the federal and state levels. This newfound power manifested in many ways, including the legalization of marijuana and mandating all Illinois public universities accept the Common Application. 

We see the opposite effect in 2021. American voters have reacted to Joe Biden’s presidency by electing Republicans in many seats. As of Nov. 5, Republicans have swept all three Virginia statewide offices — governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general — and flipped the House of Delegates. Republicans also came much closer than expected to reversing the New Jersey governor’s seat and won many state legislative seats in the state. Even state Senate President Steve Sweeney, lost to a Republican candidate who the New Jersey Globe reports spent “just $153 on his campaign” in a district Trump narrowly won in 2020.

Looking at that Election Day, I believe the fundamental cause of Democratic losses relates to the presidential penalty. Some voters grew tired of Democrats in power federally, and took out their frustration on Democrats at all levels. When you look at the results, it wasn’t just Virginia and New Jersey swinging right, but also Pennsylvania in the state supreme court race and New York in City Council races and Nassau County elections. If you uniquely blame Terry McAuliffe and Virginia Democrats for a bad statewide campaign, then how do you explain similar rightward shifts across the country? These correlations are why I take stock in the presidential penalty theory, and why I relate this theory to gravity. A political campaign, I believe, can only change the vote margins by so much, just like a person will always come to earth after resisting gravity.

So, where do people go from here? Well, the margins that Democrats lost the Virginia and Pennsylvania statewide races are surmountable, and with different candidates or a better campaign, the results could be better. Personally, I will take solace in the small left-wing wins last night, like Michelle Wu becoming the new Mayor of Boston and Richie Floyd of Saint Petersburg, Fla., poised to become the first elected socialist Floridian in about a century. I will maintain hope for continued excellent governance in New York City, especially with a bolstered socialist caucus. 

At the same time, I will mourn losses such as the end of Democratic governance in Virginia, which was set to produce a $12 minimum wage and expansive voting laws, as well as, the missed opportunity to elect the socialist Felicia Singh in exurban Queens. There are a lot of lessons to learn from this week which the interpreters will relay with a frozen heart. I will end with a quote from the philosopher Thomas Paine: “I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection.”

Sterling Ortiz is a SESP fourth-year. You can contact him at [email protected]. If you would like to respond publicly to this op-ed, send a Letter to the Editor to [email protected]. The views expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect the views of all staff members of The Daily Northwestern.