Pillote: Short passes aren’t working for Wildcats
October 22, 2014
It’s become an all too common sight for Northwestern fans this season: The Wildcats are in a third-and-manageable situation, drop back to throw and complete a pass short of the first down. The offense cedes the field to the punting unit after what was probably a very short drive.
Beyond a crippling lack of situational awareness, these plays reveal something else endemic in the NU offense. The Cats are plagued by short passes and, subsequently, are doomed to be mired in the offensive mediocrity that caused them to lose a winnable game against Nebraska on Saturday.
That’s not to say there’s something inherently wrong with throwing short passes because NU runs many screen plays and is usually successful with them. The issue is the Cats run too high a volume of short passes to sustainably produce offense.
Bigger is almost always better when it comes to plays. Every team wants to nail a long bomb to a streaking receiver for an easy touchdown as soon as it takes possession. Quick scoring takes less time off the clock and also minimizes the chances of committing a turnover or suffering a sack or dropped pass.
But all teams recognize they can’t score at will. Some offenses even embrace their own ineptitude, intentionally plodding down the field at a methodical pace to keep possession of the ball and limit their own mistakes. That’s exactly the strategy Minnesota used to beat NU earlier this season, eluding defeat even though the Cats ran 30 more plays than the Golden Gophers.
NU’s offense is predicated on getting into third-and-manageable situations and then converting those situations. The Cats are excellent at the first part, having generated 123 third down opportunities this season, which ranks ninth among all Football Bowl Subdivision teams.
But they’re awful at the second part, converting just under 40 percent of those attempts into first downs, which ranks 74th.
The team’s lack of explosiveness is epitomized by its dismal 4.61 yards per play, which ranks 116th nationally. That’s one spot behind Vanderbilt, a team that has only scored 15 touchdowns this season.
Put into perspective, if NU produced its average yards per play on every play on a drive starting from its own 25 yard line, which is not an unreasonable assumption given how averse the offense is to moving the ball downfield, it would take them 17 plays to score a touchdown.
Because that hypothetical drive involves so many plays and based on the offense’s turnover rate this season, there is a 23 percent chance they throw an interception or lose a fumble, and based on their sack rate, there is a 44 percent chance they suffer a drive-crippling sack.
Those numbers aren’t good, and they don’t even account for the numerous drops that have plagued the Cats’ receivers this year. Yet the offense continues to call short passes, either because offensive coordinator Mick McCall isn’t willing to risk throwing downfield or because senior quarterback Trevor Siemian is incapable of throwing downfield.
Regardless, the current strategy isn’t working. Freshman running back Justin Jackson is averaging more yards on his own, 4.7 per carry, than the entire offense. Something needs to change.
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Twitter: @BobbyPillote