Ten years ago, the team with the first overall pick had a problem entering the NFL Draft. It was clear the team would draft a quarterback, but which one?

The choice came down to a senior quarterback from an elite program and a junior from an upstart.

The senior completed 60 percent of his passes and racked up 3,819 yards with 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions the previous year.

The junior completed 55 percent of his passes and threw for 3,968 yards with 34 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

But the junior did more for the program than throw touchdowns. He quarterbacked the school to its first top 10 in program history when the team was predicted to finish seventh in the conference.

He led his team to its first Rose Bowl in 67 years, where his band of underdogs took No. 1 Michigan to the final play. By the end of the year, the junior had climbed to second in passing yards in his school’s history – leaping ahead of NFL star Drew Bledsoe.

The senior, on the other hand, was expected to lead his team to championships. He had the quarterback pedigree in his blood and the history of a great program behind him.

The senior’s team entered its bowl game ranked third and had a legitimate chance to win the national championship. The senior set school records in passing yards and touchdowns for his tradition-rich school.

But the four-year starter struggled to win the big game, losing to No. 2 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, 42-17.

The two swept the awards. They were their conferences’ top quarterbacks and finished second and third in Heisman voting.

The question was: Who would be the top pick in the draft?

Which one would you pick?

When commissioner Paul Tagliabue stepped to the podium on April 18, 1998, the Indianapolis Colts needed to make a decision between the senior and the junior.

They went with senior Peyton Manning from the University of Tennessee.

Manning has been as good as any other quarterback during his 10-year career. He has set NFL passing records, picked apart defenses and led his team to a Super Bowl championship.

The San Diego Chargers quickly gobbled up junior Ryan Leaf from Washington State University. It was a clear win-win, right?

Wrong. Leaf struggled to find his place, throwing 15 interceptions his rookie season.

Ten years removed, it is painfully obvious the Colts made the right decision trusting Manning with their play-calling.

But at the time, who knew Leaf would implode as he did, throwing 14 touchdowns and 36 interceptions before retiring in 2002? Who knew a decade later he would be coaching golf at West Texas A&M University?

Who knew Manning would set the single-season touchdown record, become a perennial Pro Bowler and one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time after a rookie season where he threw 26 touchdowns, but also 28 interceptions?

The ghost of Leaf has haunted the NFL Draft this past decade, as each team tries to avoid the inexcusable bust – the player with the great college stats who does not pan out in the pros.

But the other extreme is just as treacherous.

Is a player picked purely on scouting reports and potential better than someone who has proven himself on the field?

As this weekend’s 2008 draft approaches, does anyone really know who will be the next Manning and who the next Leaf?

Of course not. You can only hope and pick.

Assistant sports editor Philip Rossman-Reich is a Medill sophomore. He can be reached at [email protected].