Does “superdelegate” sound like a second-rate comic-book hero? Does the word “primary” mean more than first? Does the word “caucus” make you giggle?
Many Americans — especially those looking for someone to unseat President Bush — have been following the trail of Democratic primaries and caucuses. But the nomination process is much more than winning miniature elections across America.
In other words, John Kerry winning 12 of the 14 state contests held so far doesn’t necessarily mean the Massachusetts senator is any closer to becoming president, especially in a historical context.
Kenneth Janda, an NU professor emeritus of political science, said this year’s primaries and caucuses are not used to select the nominee, but instead to name delegates who will officially choose the nominee to challenge Bush. The decision is made in late July at the Democratic National Convention in Boston.
“Since 1968 the nominee is determined in advance of the convention,” said Janda, co-founder and co-editor of “Political Parties,” a scholarly journal. “So the convention is really a coronation, not a choice.”
State party officials apportion delegates based on election results, awarding the most delegates to the winner. The system grew out of state-level reforms in the 1960s, Janda said. Before that party leaders, not voters, selected the nominee.
“Before the primary, in many cases, the state party … would be empowered to choose the delegates at the convention,” Janda said. “That’s why, when you study the convention in the 1950s, there’d be a lot of horse-trading going on.”
A candidate today needs 2,162 votes at the convention to secure the nomination.
The vast majority of delegates come from states and pledge in advance to vote for a particular candidate at the convention. But at least 200 “superdelegates,” important party leaders who do not pledge in advance to support a candidate, attend the convention and vote for a nominee on their own accord.
Delegates for candidates who leave the race — for one, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who ended his bid Tuesday after third-place finishes in the Tennessee and Virginia primaries — still attend the convention and cast votes. But Janda said although delegates pledge in advance who they will vote for, they are free to renege.
One notorious aspect of the system, according to Janda, is that candidates who win primaries and caucuses in early states, such as New Hampshire and Iowa, are the recipients of momentum and money that carries them through the rest of the primary season.
This phenomenon has proven to be a curse for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who was considered the front-runner until a third place finish in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses.
“I think the most important thing we have to recognize is that (Dean’s) campaign took a downturn before ‘the scream,'” said Janda, referring to Dean’s excited speech at a rally after the Iowa caucuses. “He was not clicking in Iowa the way he would have expected. There was something about Dean that did not resonate with voters the way Kerry and others did.”
Kerry continues leading the pack of Democratic contenders with 538 delegates following victories in the Tennessee and Virginia primaries Tuesday. Dean hangs on with 182 delegates, followed by North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 166. Before leaving the race, Clark had 89 delegates. The next primary is Tuesday in Wisconsin, where 87 delegates are up for grabs.
Weinberg senior Madhuri Kommareddi said she is hoping for a Kerry victory in the Illinois primary March 16. She recently was named a Kerry delegate after volunteering for his campaign for almost a year.
If Kerry wins enough votes in the Illinois primary, Kommareddi will represent her Congressional district in Boston and cast her vote for Kerry at the Democratic National Convention.
“It’s going to be neat to see my name on the ballot,” Kommareddi said. “If I get to go to the convention, this is the first election I’m old enough to vote in, and to be at that convention is pretty amazing.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
