With 10 games remaining on the regular-season schedule, here’s a modern psychologist’s breakdown of possible outcomes for the Northwestern men’s basketball season.
1. Lose them all. This would exemplify a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, at least for the school. NU is used to losing, feels more comfortable doing so and thus seeks out situations that will reward it with this level of familiarity.
2. Win two or three. With a 14-14 or 13-15 final mark, NU would fall just short of eligibility for the NIT, which requires a record above .500. An unlikely run in the Big Ten tournament would be the only thing allowing the Cats a chance at the postseason. This finish would suggest that the team suffers from “Cubness,” a personality trait accepted by some “psychologists” (Miss Cleo comes to mind). In the 1980s, writer Ron Berler did a study on World Series teams with at least three former members of the Chicago Cubs, pointing out that only one of those 12 teams since 1946 was able to win the World Series. The Cubs break hearts every year, and so can the Cats.
3. Win four or five. A 15-13 record would virtually clinch the Cats’ fourth-ever NIT appearance, and the NU fan base would undoubtedly be in a frenzy over this, exhibiting symptoms of hysteria and possibly amnesia.
4. Win six or seven. Now things get interesting. With 17 wins and at least a .500 record in Big Ten play, NU would be flirting with … yes, folks, the school’s first trip to the Big Dance. No guaranteed bids for this one, but Cats fans would at least have a real reason to watch the selection show this year. A Sports Illustrated cover shot of Bill Carmody would assuredly follow, resulting in a return to reality and a first-round Tournament loss to, let’s say, Gonzaga. According to sporting lore, appearances on Sports Illustrated covers are bad luck, as the player or team portrayed frequently fades into mediocrity after the issue comes out. Psychologists say this is normal, pointing out that extreme success or failure is often an aberration, and that everyone tends toward average performance.
5. Win them all. There are some events that psychology can’t explain.
It’s hard to imagine the Cats breaking out of their psychological rut. But this is college basketball. Sure, tradition is key – otherwise, how could Duke and Stanford field perennial powerhouses despite their supposed admission requirements? – but personnel turnover gives teams nearly 100 percent makeovers within a five to six years.
Nearly every coach and player on the current team wasn’t in Evanston for the Cats’ last NIT appearance in 1999, so they have no reason to have any expectations for NU basketball. In fact, they all have highly successful personal histories.
Bill Carmody won 89.3 percent of his Ivy League games as head coach at Princeton from 1996 to 2000. Assistant Craig Robinson was the Ivy League Player of the Year in 1982 and 1983 while playing for Princeton; assistant Mitch Henderson led Princeton to three straight Ivy League titles and helped Princeton knock off defending champion UCLA in the 1997 NCAA Tournament. Most, if not all, of NU’s players were on winning high school teams.
After all that winning, NU’s perennial losing leads to some serious cognitive dissonance. An NCAA berth might be asking a lot, but it’s very possible that NU can get the monkey off its back and notch at least a .500 record this year. After all, there are no former Cubs on the team.
