Taiwan is an anomaly, Northwestern law student Steve Yao told about 20 students at International Studies Residential College Sunday.

“It is a country that is not really a country,” said Yao, who spoke about Taiwanese independence for NU’s celebration of Asian-American Heritage Month.

Taiwan is part of China but has its own government. While the Chinese would like the two countries to be unified, Taiwanese citizens are uncertain of the island’s future.

“The people are not necessarily opposed to independence, but there is no groundswell for independence either,” Yao said in his hourlong talk sponsored by Taiwanese American Students Club.

Taiwanese people are strongly inclined to maintain the status quo, Yao said, because the economy is good and the government is more tolerant. Yao cited the island’s March 2000 elections, won by Chen Shui Bien, the pro-independence Democratic Political Party candidate. It was the first presidential election the DPP had won.

But Chen’s election doesn’t mean the people want independence, said Yao, a native Taiwanese.

The pro-reunification candidate garnered 37 percent of the vote. Only 15 percent of the total population is made up of mainlanders, most of whom are descendants of the Chinese who fled to Taiwan with Chiang Kai-Shek in 1947.

But any future actions by Taiwan depend on China and the United States, Yao said.

“Don’t underestimate China,” Yao said of any possible move for independence. “The ruling party is not willing to take such a loss of face.”

Chinese communist ideology is dead, Yao said. The legitimacy of the ruling party is based upon “military-supported nationalism,” and if Taiwan declares its independence, Chinese leaders would see it as an attack against this core ideology. China would take military action against Taiwan, which would not be able to defend itself because it has only 400,000 troops compared with China’s 3 million, Yao said.

Although the United States has come to Taiwan’s aid before, when it sent battleships to Strait of Taiwan during a tense period, Yao said U.S. military aid would be unlikely.

The United States has strong economic interests in China and supporting Taiwan’s independence would be “cutting itself (the United States) off from the biggest market of the 21st century,” Yao said.

For now, Taiwan must maintain its autonomy but appease China at the same time, Yao said. He commended Chen for holding off on a decision to declare independence and proposed a plan of action for Taiwan.

“The best hope for Taiwan is to agree with reunification on some level,” said Yao, who suggested that Taiwan agree to join China but not take any official action until free trade has opened China to democracy. When that happens, the Chinese government will accept the will of the people in Taiwan, Yao said.

Yao said he is “completely against reunification for at least 50 years.”

But he praised the recent changes in Taiwan’s government, especially the peaceful transition in March from the ruling Kuomintang party to the DPP.

“It’s democracy at work, and Taiwan is amazing,” Yao said.