Football

Clayton Thorson stepped forward in the pocket, released the ball just as two Rutgers linemen converged and hit Flynn Nagel for a crucial fourth-and-4 conversion late in last Saturday’s game against Rutgers. Big Ten Network analyst Glen Mason said that despite the play’s success, he still felt the Wildcats should’ve kicked a field goal.

One play later, freshman running back Isaiah Bowser rumbled into the end zone to give Northwestern the game-winning touchdown and make Mason’s assessment seem comically outdated.

Through thick and thin in recent years, coach Pat Fitzgerald has stuck with his ideology of attempting fourth-down conversion attempts far more frequently than the average coach.

During Fitzgerald’s first decade at the helm, the Cats went for it on fourth down an average of just 16 times per season. Then something changed. In 2016, they were 17-for-32 on fourth-down attempts; in 2017, they were 22-for-39; so far in 2018, they’re 8-for-18 and on pace for another year of 30-plus attempts.

The strategy doesn’t always work. In last December’s Music City Bowl against Kentucky, four straight failed fourth-down tries nearly squandered the game. And in ugly losses this September to Duke and Akron, NU converted only two of 10 attempts and Fitzgerald was roundly criticized for his over-commitment to his offense.

But at this point, fourth-down liberalism has become simply a part of the Cats’ identity — they’re second in the nation in fourth-down conversion attempts dating back to the start of last season.

“We’re just playing the numbers,” said offensive coordinator Mick McCall, who noted that Fitzgerald always makes the final decision. “If the chance for us to get the first down is better than (a certain) rate, then we will. Nothing’s perfect — guys still have to go out and make a play — but that’s our approach.”

Over the past season and a half, the Cats are an impressive 15-for-19 on fourth-and-one situations, on all but one of which they ran the ball.

Thorson’s 6-foot-4 size and NU’s strategy of using its superback as a “pusher” behind him on quarterback sneaks have made that play an almost unstoppable weapon.

“I love that. As an offensive lineman, you want it to be on you,” senior guard Tommy Doles said. “If we’ve got a fourth and short, sometimes we’re even looking over at the sideline like, ‘Let’s go, let’s push it in.’ We’re hungry for that.”

The Cats’ track record when longer distances are needed, however, is significantly worse. They’re a poor 7-for-22 in fourth-and-moderate situations (2-5 yards needed), although counterintuitively a fairly impressive 8-for-16 on fourth-and-longs (6 or more yards needed).

Despite that, Fitzgerald is now frequently willing to forego field goal attempts and keep his offense on the field. The coach has elected to go for it in conventional field goal scenarios (inside the 30 yard line, two or more yards to go) 16 times over the past two seasons, and succeeded in moving chains only seven times.

There’s also evidence that adrenaline plays a role in NU’s fourth-down effectiveness. Since the start of 2017, the team has converted just 40 percent of conversion attempts when winning but, conversely, 57 percent when losing or tied.

“There’s a heightened sense of urgency, we know it’s do or die on this play,” Doles said of the team’s mentality entering fourth downs. McCall added that he “may do something different” in his play calling in such instances.

Somehow, though, the Cats have rediscovered their fourth-down groove in recent weeks. After that 2-for-10 stretch in September, they’ve converted six of the last seven tries, directly enabling rousing comebacks each of the past two Saturdays. Entering this weekend’s top-of-the-division showdown against Wisconsin, fourth-down dice-rolling has again shown itself a key aspect of Fitzgerald’s coaching ideology.

As for what changed his mind back in 2016, though, the coach isn’t spilling.

“I don’t know,” he said this week, tongue-in-cheek. “Emails from fans?”

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Twitter: @benpope111