Haven’t we seen this Northwestern basketball team hovering around .500 in mid-February, fooling us into believing this is the year NU finally will finish with a winning record, erasing years of futility by qualifying for the postseason?
Yes, in fact, we have.
It looked like this in 2003-04. And the Wildcats finished 14-15.
It looked like this last year, too. Again they finished a game short of qualifying for the NIT (which, after 100-plus years of NCAA tournament-free basketball, is the only postseason tournament NU really can strive for at this point).
Right now, after dispatching IPFW 73-49 on Saturday, the Cats are 12-10 with six games and the Big Ten tournament remaining. So, naturally, there’s only one possible conclusion: This year, just like the last two, these Cats are going to break our hearts by finishing one game short of .500.
Or are they?
If there’s ever been a year under coach Bill Carmody in which NU should make it to the postseason – or at least qualify for it – it’s this one.
Let’s take a closer look.
In 2003-04, the Cats had all-Big Ten guard Jitim Young and a lot of buzz. But after a 5-3 start, they lost four straight and never again jumped above .500. And they never had much of a chance to do any better – they went 6-4 in their final 10 games, losing only to tournament-bound Illinois and Michigan State (twice) and eventual NIT champion Michigan.
Last year was almost the same story. NU jumped to 14-13, but its final two regular-season games came against the No. 4 Spartans and at formidable Indiana. Two losses followed, and Carmody spent his fifth-straight March at home.
But what about now? While the Cats’ 12-10 record looks like it’ll even out after trips to Champaign, Ill., (where NU never wins) and to Columbus, Ohio, (home to arguably the conference’s best team), the road to NIT eligibility gets considerably smoother thereafter.
NU has three games at home (against struggling Wisconsin, No. 17 Ohio State and 3-7 Minnesota) and a game at enigmatic Penn State (which beat NU in Evanston and also Illinois in Champaign, then fell to Minnesota at home).
Three wins here would lock up a .500 record. Two would give the Cats a shot, especially with a sub-par opponent likely on the schedule in the Big Ten tournament’s first round. And in this year’s crazy Big Ten, three wins certainly is doable.
Also, let’s not forget how the Cats are playing. After an embarrassing four-game losing streak, NU has won three of five, falling only to No. 22 Indiana on the road and No. 12 Michigan State.
The Cats showed clutch ability in a 78-76 overtime win at Purdue. They showed mettle in their annual beating of No. 19 Iowa. Even their win against IPFW was impressive, featuring a freshman walk-on, a coach-to-be and a former tennis player instead of NU’s infamous second-half scramble (which was used to overcome a 10-point deficit to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in last year’s mid-season non-conference game).
So it seems like a bold statement is in order. “The Cats will make the postseason!” seems like the thing to say.
But after the last two years, one can’t really say this. All that can be said is this is NU’s best chance, and Carmody and Co. better not blow it.
We can’t stand for three straight years of this, can we?
Patrick Dorsey is a Medill junior. He can be reached at [email protected].