The magic number is four.
Only by winning its last four games of the season in a weekend series at Minnesota can the Northwestern baseball team be absolutely sure that it will have a spot in the six-team Big Ten tournament next Wednesday.
The math is tricky, but the Wildcats hold their postseason destiny in the palms of their hands as they battle with the Golden Gophers – the third-place team in the conference – this evening in Minneapolis.
Because of rainouts and the occasional snowout during the regular season, NU (24-28, 11-13 Big Ten) is the only team that has played all 24 of its Big Ten games thus far. That means teams like Michigan and Illinois, which are vying with the Cats for the fifth and sixth spots in the conference, have played fewer games and can’t end up tied with NU at the end of the year.
As it stands, NU is fifth with a .458 winning percentage. Michigan, at 9-11 in the Big Ten, is sixth with a .450 winning percentage, and Illinois is seventh at 10-13, technically a half-game behind the Cats.
And although the Wolverines and the Illini are the two squads NU has to watch out for, every team in the conference is mathematically alive except for Iowa and Indiana.
The Cats can expect a tussle from the Golden Gophers, however. Minnesota is still fighting for the conference’s top spot and a chance to host the tournament at Siebert Field, where today’s matchup against NU will be played at 6:35 p.m. The Golden Gophers (31-19, 15-8) can leapfrog first-place Ohio State with three wins and three Buckeyes losses.
NU will monitor Ohio State’s progress this weekend as well. The Buckeyes take on Michigan at home and can give the Cats some breathing room by beating the Wolverines.
Earlier this season, Michigan had three of its games against second-to-last-place Iowa rained out and watched one series later as snow wiped out a game against Penn State.
It is unlikely that the Big Ten will schedule makeup games because the tournament is scheduled to start just three days after this weekend’s games. And, having played fewer games, Michigan can actually hurdle the Cats in the standings if both teams win their last four.
The Fighting Illini finish with a four-game series at home against cellar-dwelling Indiana – a seemingly ideal situation.
And if things fall apart and the Cats are left out of the playoffs, they can at least take comfort in knowing that this season’s team was never supposed to contend, having dropped four games to Illinois to start the Big Ten season.
