No, this isn’t a bracket of last year’s women’s lacrosse NCAA Championships – though the final may look like it. Northwestern begins its play in the 2011 NCAA Championships on Saturday with a seventh-straight finals appearance on its mind. Here are some predictions for how the tourney will shake out, from beat writer Colin Becht and photographer/web editor Mackenzie McCluer.
Colin’s Analysis:
The first round should go almost entirely according to seed. While the 8-9 game may seem like the spot to look for a cheap upset, don’t count on Princeton to knock off James Madison. The Dukes downed the Tigers during the regular season 10-5 and have won their past six, including a victory over then-No. 11 Virginia.
It’s not all chalk through the first round though as Dartmouth should hand Albany its first loss of the season. Though the Great Danes are the only undefeated team in the country, Dartmouth has been on a hot streak, becoming the only team to defeat No. 1 Maryland this season with a 9-8 win on May 1.
The second round, like the first round is nearly all chalk, and there’s a good reason for that – the top seeds host in the first two rounds. Also, while women’s lacrosse has certainly become a more balanced sport with many elite programs, the top programs are just simply a little better than everyone else.
The Duke-Florida game should be a fascinating one as it matches up two of those elite programs I just mentioned. Neither team will enter the game playing its best lacrosse of the season. Florida has lost two of its past three, including a 10-9 loss to NU in which the Gators led 8-5. The Blue Devils meanwhile have lost their past two games. However, Duke takes this matchup for the same reason NU defeated Florida – draw controls. The Wildcats dominated the Gators off the draw, allowing NU to maintain possession to get on a run offensively. The Blue Devils are eighth in the nation in draw controls, giving them that same edge to just top the Gators.
The tournament finally gets interesting as concentrates in Stony Brook, NY for semifinals and the championship. Duke will get a second chance at Maryland after the Terrapins rocked the Blue Devils 18-11 during the regular season. Though that game was played at Maryland, Duke will likely face the same outcome. Expect the Blue Devils to hang with the Terrapins and create an upset scare, but the Maryland defense, ranked second in the NCAA with a 6.74 goals against average, will ensure Duke doesn’t mount a late charge.
NU’s semifinal match similarly is a rematch from early in the season as the Cats face off against the Tar Heels. NU squeaked by North Carolina in Chapel Hill with a 7-6 overtime thriller. The replay should likewise go down to the wire, but this is exactly the type of game in which Tewaarton Award-candidate Shannon Smith steps up and takes over. Smith scored four times against the Tar Heels last time including back-to-back goals that rallied NU from a 5-3 deficit. She sparked close wins over Florida, Virginia and Stanford recently. She’ll do the same against North Carolina.
Unfortunately for the Cats, this season, like the last one, ends in heartbreak at the hands of the Terrapins. While NU has seemed to be hitting their stride heading into the NCAA Championships, Maryland has been on top of its game all season. With the exception of a fluky 9-8 double overtime loss to Dartmouth, the Terrapins have been perfect. They beat Syracuse by two, two opponents by three, and 10 foes by nine goals or more. Maryland has scored the fifth most goals per game and allowed the second least in the country. Had Dartmouth not proven otherwise, the Terrapins seem unbeatable. NU will certainly keep the game close with its explosive offense, but in the crunch time, Maryland’s defense will get just enough stops to defend the Terrapins’ title.
Mackenzie’s Analysis:
Colin was spot-on for most of his analysis, but I take issue with three of his picks: Albany vs. Dartmouth, Duke vs. Florida and – of course – Maryland vs. Northwestern.
Dartmouth’s “hot streak” was iced last week. Dartmouth’s upset bid against No. 1 Maryland was sandwiched between two match-ups with unranked Harvard: a resounding 14-7 win during the regular season and a 11-10 loss last week in the Ivy League Semifinal. The stumble may have quashed the Big Green’s momentum going into the NCAA Tournament. Albany, in contrast, has stayed strong all season. Although their schedule wasn’t quite as difficult as Dartmouth’s, the Great Danes still posted the only perfect record of any of the teams in the first round. The big questions for this match-up will be whether Albany can step up against a more experienced team and whether the Big Green can find its footing again after an inconsistent finish to its season.
Don’t underestimate the Gators. Florida, who started the season ranked 17th and finished at No. 4, posted a streak of 14 wins during the regular season and topped Northwestern 13-11 in only its second year with varsity status. (The parallels between Florida and the ‘Cats are pretty uncanny: Both programs were established in far-flung regions not known for the sport, had a team of young players and still managed to execute meteoric rises within their first five years.) Even if the Blue Devils do win the draw consistently, they don’t have Kitty Cullen. Florida’s sophomore attacker led the NCAA in goals for much of the season, and her 3.94 goals per game and 71 total goals rank second nationally. Guided by ALC Coach of the Year Amanda O’Leary and assistant coach Caitlyn McFadden – last year’s Tewaraaton Award winner and the star of Maryland’s championship team – the up-and-coming Gators could very well knock off tournament regular Duke.
Maryland, the reigning champ, is fallible. The Terrapins’ margin of victory took a sharp downturn in the second half of their season. They beat their first 10 opponents by an average of 10.5 goals but their last nine by only 5.4 – including a 9-8 double overtime loss to No. 14 Dartmouth. The discrepancy may be a result of the loss of perennial Terrapin powerhouses Brandi Jones and Karri Ellen Johnson, Lacrosse Magazine’s National Preseason Player of the Year, who sat out the last two and eight games respectively on account of concussions. Without them, the Maryland attack might not be firing on all cylinders come May 29th.
And it’s not as if their 17-win season featured zero close calls, either. No. 12 Syracuse gave the Terps a run for their money in March with a stifling stall that Maryland struggled to overcome, 7-5. That strategy, which allowed the Orange to hold Maryland to its lowest scoring output all season, could serve Northwestern well. Stalls put an incredible amount of importance on the draw, one of Northwestern’s strengths: The Wildcats rank No 1. in the NCAA Division I with an average of 16.32 draw controls per game. (Maryland ranks 24th.) Northwestern isn’t afraid to eat time off the clock, either – its match-up against No. 11 Virginia, for example, was marked by long stretches of keep-away with the Cavalier defense — so expect to see playmaker Shannon Smith hold the ball behind the cage for a chunk of the match.
The question remains: Can Northwestern put together a solid 60 minutes of lacrosse against the No. 1 team in the country? The ‘Cats have been haunted all season by turnovers, an inability to finish on their shots and an exasperating inconsistency. But when a team can post 17 wins in a building year – six of Northwestern’s top 10 scorers are underclassmen, as are nearly
half of their regular starters – you know you’re doing something right. A win for Northwestern might be a long shot, but have a little faith in Kelly Amonte-Hiller, Smith and the rest of the squad. The under-‘Cats could very well eke out a sixth championship title.
