About 60 students and faculty learned how to apply their studies and research firsthand at a presentation Monday called “Improving Prediction of Random Epidemic Outbreaks” at the Technological Institute.
Dr. Eric Forgoston discussed how applied mathematics can track the spread of an epidemic. He began his presentation with the history of famous epidemiologists, from Hippocrates to John Snow – the proclaimed “father” of epidemiology – who observed and tracked a cholera outbreak in London during the 1850s, and whose methods are still used in part today.
Forgoston, a researcher from the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, presented a mathematical model to help predict epidemics over time. He developed the model along with Dr. Lora Billings and Dr. Ira B. Schwartz. The method is a simplified process to determine how epidemics will affect a population over hundreds of years.
Forgoston’s presentation was part of a series of colloquia and talks geared toward the Engineering Sciences and Applied Math program of the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. He began by describing the history of epidemiology, a branch of medicine studying the incidence and control of disease. He said limitations in another statistical method prompted him, Billings and Schwartz to develop a new one. This equation can predict the spread of epidemics in larger populations over a longer period of time.
“We want recurrent outbreaks, outbreaks that may look chaotic,” Forgoston said. “So we’re going to have to complicate the method.”
Forgoston said earlier formulas used to predict outbreaks did not work in modeling epidemics over time. The researchers developed a new model which takes into account birth and death rates as well as the usual variables of susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered members of the population.
The researchers also discovered the new method could help find other variables.
“Given measurable numbers of infected individuals in the population,” Forgoston said, “we can predict the measured number of exposed individuals.”
The audience, composed mainly of McCormick graduate students, asked Forgoston questions based on the mathematical equations he presented.
Hannah Choi , a first-year graduate student in McCormick, said the formula showed math’s impact on current issues.
“It’s where mathematics can be actually applied to the real world – it’s very interesting in that sense,” she said.
Third-year McCormick graduate student Lane McConnell said Forgoston’s presentation and the researchers’ findings made working in statistical epidemiology easier.
“It’s basically just an accurate simplification of a more complicated model,” he said.
Forgoston concluded his presentation by explaining the merits of the new method and its possible implications.
“There’s lots of work that can be done,” he said. “Once you have this ability to accurately predict disease outbreak, you can study different types of control techniques.”
